The calling of parliamentary elections in Kosovo municipalities with majority of Serbian population would indicate that Belgrade has no intentions of abolishing Serbian institutions in that area. This would, without doubt, cause unfavorable reactions among those western actors who advocate full suppression of Serbian institutions from Kosovo, says Dusan Reljic from the Institute of International Relations and Security in Berlin.
Are the EU countries concerned about the negative effects their actions might have on pro-European authorities and parties in Serbia?
My impression is that the West, in opposition to previous parliamentary and presidential elections, this time has no intentions of avoiding the moves that could harm those political forces in Serbia they usually refer to as “pro-European”. I believe it is estimated that at this moment there is no possibility that political forces inclined to exacerbation of the Kosovo issue and new conflict with the western allies could regain power in Serbia. I would say that the primary objective of current policy of the West is to eliminate the risk of escalation of existing semi-frozen conflict in Kosovo, and perhaps even in Macedonia and the surrounding areas. That is why everyone insists on completing the expansion of Pristina institutions throughout the entire Kosovo.
When she was in Pristina, German Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated the conditions for granting Serbia the candidate status. Does this mean that there will be no agreement in March unless the parallel institutions are abolished?
The European Council conclusions from December 9th list the following conditions for granting the candidate status to Serbia:
– Belgrade needs to show “credible commitment” and to make further progress in achieving agreement on “Integrated Border Management” (with Kosovo)
– An agreement needs to be achieved on comprehensive regional cooperation (this refers to questions how and under what name will the Government be represented at international conferences);
– Belgrade needs to “actively cooperate” so that EULEX and KFOR could “fulfill their mandates.”
The abolition of Serbian institutions in the north of Kosovo is not mentioned in these conclusions which, however, does not mean that certain EU member countries will not put this question on the agenda.
To what extent is the candidacy for EU membership related to new investments, including the ones from Germany, as well as to economy development?
Economic and political closeness of Serbia and other countries of Southeast Europe poses both opportunities and risks for the European Union. Serbia and other countries of Southeast Europe are largely dependent on the economic situation in the European Union, more precisely on the conjectures in Germany and Italy, to a lesser extent on Austria and Greece, and even lesser extent on some other EU member states. This is because the fact that an important part of foreign trade is related to EU (30-60%), primarily Germany and Italy. If there is any economic crisis in these countries, the trade in Serbia and other countries of Southeast Europe will weaken as well. The slower economic growth in Western Europe, the less investments in the economy of these countries in Southeast Europe.
In addition, the majority of the banking capital in Southeast Europe is in the hands of Italian, Austrian, French, Greek, and, somewhat less, German banks. If these banks fall into crisis, it will inevitably affect the Southeast Europe, for example, through lower investment and withdrawal of capital. The negative consequences of the international financial crisis are already felt in Southeast Europe: the price of international loans has increased and countries can hardly finance budget deficit and development investments with foreign money.
Does this mean we can expect reduction of investments?
The favorable economic development in Germany over the past two or three years was beneficial for Serbia: increased exports to Germany, increased German investments, primarily in the much-needed industrial production in order to finally revive export, stronger long-term association of Serbian economy and German partners which actually gives Serbia the chance to join the international economic flows (“globalization”). For German, Italian and other Western investors it is not crucial that Serbia becomes a candidate for EU membership. They are primarily concerned about political stability, the strength of legal system, low tax rates, cheap and relatively skilled labor force, geographical and cultural proximity and, what should not be underestimated, the ability to use trade concessions that Russia offers Serbia. The recent production of Fiat cars in Kragujevac is much more important for Serbia and the region than the question whether the candidacy status will be acquired in March of this or next year. Perhaps it will take one entire decade until Serbia actually becomes the EU member country. Meanwhile, the most important interest of Southeast Europe is not to fall behind other parts of the continent any longer, regarding both the economy and civilization. Only economic growth leads to political stability and thus speeds up EU accession.
Kosovo and the elections: Take it or leave it, you will regret it